[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 18 issued 2336 UT on 22 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 23 09:36:49 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 22 May,
with only few B-class flares. The largest flare B8.9 peaked at
22/1459 UT and came from the NE limb of the sun. It is thought
to be associated with another sunspot region which will soon
rotate to the earthward facing side. The current numbered sunspot
region (Region 2710) is located at N15E51 and appears to be stable.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next
3 days (23 - 25 May) with a chance of C-class flares and a remote
chance of an isolated M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during UT day, 22 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up until
22/1636UT. The solar wind speed up till 22/1600 UT was near the
nominal level of 300 km/s and thereafter increased. The solar
wind speed at the time of writing this report was near 400 km/s.
The observed moderate enhancements in the solar wind speed is
in response to the anticipated arrival of high speed stream associated
with a polar connected, positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF
Bt was near 4 nT till 22/1200 UT and thereafter peaked to near
10 nT due to the arrival of the corotation interaction region
(CIR) associated with the coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF
was between -7 nT and 7 nT, with only short-lived periods of
significant southward component. The outlook for today (23 May)
is for the solar wind speed to reach moderately elevated levels
as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect solar wind
to show a declining trend from UT day 24 May as the coronal hole
effect wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 3 00212211
Cocos Island 2 01112110
Darwin 4 01212211
Townsville 4 01212211
Learmonth 3 00212210
Alice Springs 3 00212210
Gingin 2 00201210
Canberra 3 01201211
Launceston 3 00202211
Hobart 2 00201211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00200100
Casey 5 12212211
Mawson 12 22122253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 22 May. Mostly quiet to
unsettled magnetic conditions are expected today 23 May in response
to moderate solar speed streams emanating from a polar connected,
positive polarity coronal hole. Expect magnetic conditions to
drop to mostly quiet levels from 24 May as the coronal hole effect
wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for today (23 May)
in the low and mid latitudes regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 22 May. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three days (23 - 25 May). The ionospheric
support is expected to be weakest today, but still near monthly
predicted levels. This is in to response to some minor magnetic
disturbance associated with the passage of the polar coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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