[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 24 09:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 23 May, with
several B-class flares and one C-class flare. The C-class flare
(C2.0) peaked at 23/1821 UT. All flares were from the NE limb
of the sun, associated with a new region (yet to be numbered)
that will soon rotate to the visible solar disk. The current
two numbered visible sunspot region (Region 2710 and Region 2711)
appear to be stable. Solar activity is expected to remain at
low levels for the next 3 days (24 - 26 May) with a chance of
more C-class flares from the NE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during UT day, 23 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up
until 23/2036UT. The solar wind speed during UT day 23 May increased
from 350 km/s to ~550 km/s. The observed moderate enhancements
in the solar wind speed is in response to the high speed stream
associated with a polar connected, positive polarity coronal
hole. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours ranged between 5 nT
and 10 nT; the Bz component of IMF was between -7 nT and 9 nT,
with only short-lived periods of significant southward Bz between
23/0300 UT and 23/1000 UT. The outlook for most part of today
(24 May) is for the solar wind speed to remain near these moderately
elevated levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect
solar wind to show a declining trend from late UT day 23 May
as the coronal hole effects begin to wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12322100
Cocos Island 4 12321100
Darwin 5 12322101
Townsville 6 12332101
Learmonth 6 13322101
Alice Springs 5 12322100
Gingin 5 12322200
Canberra 5 12322200
Launceston 7 12333200
Hobart 6 12323200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 11 02444200
Casey 9 22432201
Mawson 23 24543225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 55
Planetary 6 0120 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 May 6 Quiet
26 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 23 May. This
was caused by moderate solar speed streams emanating from a polar
connected, positive polarity coronal hole and some short-lived
periods of significant southward Bz component. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may reach
unsettled level, today (24 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for today (24 May)
in the low and mid latitudes regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 23 May. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three days (24 - 26 May). The ionospheric
support is expected to be weakest today, but still near monthly
predicted levels. These are the aftermath of the observed minor
magnetic disturbances associated with the passage of the polar
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list