[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 22 09:30:28 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 21 May, 
with no solar flares. A new sunspot region (Region 2710) has 
just rotated past the NE limb. Solar activity is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days (22 - 24 May). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed during UT day, 21 May, via LASCO C2 imagery 
up until 21/2000UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 21 May was 
near the nominal level of 350 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 
3 nT and 5 nT and the Bz component of IMF was between -2 nT and 
2 nT. The outlook for most part of today (22 May) is for the 
solar wind speed to remain mostly near nominal levels. From UT 
day 23 May or thereabout, the solar wind speed is expected to 
enhance to moderate levels due to the anticipated onset of high 
speed stream from a polar connected, positive polarity coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               0   11000000
      Townsville           0   01000001
      Learmonth            0   01000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           1   01020000
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                2   12110000
      Mawson               6   11111114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1110 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 May    12    Unsettled
24 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 21 May. Mostly quiet magnetic 
conditions are expected for the early part of today, 22 May. 
Conditions may reach unsettled levels and at times active levels 
later today. The disturbed conditions are expected to continue 
on 23 May. The forecasted increased geomagnetic level is in response 
to the anticipated arrival of corotation interaction region (CIR) 
and subsequent high speed stream (HSS) associated with a polar 
connected, positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for today (22 May) 
in the low and mid latitudes regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 21 May. Expect mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three days (22 - 24 May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   200000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list