[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 21 09:30:30 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 May.
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during UT day, 20 May, via LASCO C2 imagery
up until 20/2024UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 to
420 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently 400 km/s.
The IMF Bt varied between 3-5 nT and its Bz component was between
+/-4 nT. Expect the Earthward directed solar wind to remain at
nominal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01101000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 0 01100000
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Gingin 0 00101000
Canberra 0 00101000
Launceston 2 01102100
Hobart 1 00102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 4 23211100
Mawson 3 22111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 4 Quiet
22 May 4 Quiet
23 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed during the UT
day, 20 May. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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