[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 18 issued 0102 UT on 20 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 20 11:02:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 May.
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed ranged between 440 to
360 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently 370 km/s.
The IMF Bt varied between 2-4 nT and its Bz component was between
+2/-4 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain at nominal levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000100
Cocos Island 1 00110100
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 10010101
Learmonth 1 10010110
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000110
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000100
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22111211
Mawson 9 21110334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1201 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 4 Quiet
21 May 4 Quiet
22 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed during the UT
day, 19 May. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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