[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 19 09:30:40 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 May.
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery up till 18/1736UT.
The solar wind speed ranged between 470 to 420 km/s during the
last 24 hours and is currently 440 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between
2-6 nT and its Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Expect the
solar wind to remain slightly elevated during the UT day, 19
May, due to the influence of the weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11012210
Cocos Island 2 11101200
Darwin 3 11012210
Townsville 5 22112211
Learmonth 5 21112310
Alice Springs 2 11012200
Culgoora 2 11012200
Gingin 5 21113210
Canberra 2 10012200
Launceston 5 11013310
Hobart 4 11013300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 5 10024200
Casey 7 33212201
Mawson 23 55322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2223 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 6 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 4 Quiet
21 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed during
the UT day, 18 May. Expect Mostly Quiet conditions for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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