[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri May 18 09:30:27 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 May. 
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery up till 17/1736UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 365 to 460 km/s during the 
last 24 hours and is currently 460 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 
2-10 nT and its Bz component was between +/-9 nT. Expect the 
solar wind to remain slightly elevated during the UT day, 18 
May, due to the influence of the coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 17 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11223221
      Cocos Island         5   11222220
      Darwin               7   21232221
      Townsville           8   21233221
      Learmonth            8   21233230
      Alice Springs        6   11223220
      Gingin               8   21123330
      Canberra             6   11123221
      Launceston           8   11224221
      Hobart               7   11124221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
      Macquarie Island    11   11125321
      Casey                8   23223221
      Mawson              26   54423453

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed during 
the UT day, 17 May. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions today, 
18 May, with a possibility of Active levels at higher latitudes 
due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Expect 
a return to Mostly Quiet conditions by 20 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal to Fair HF conditions for the next 
two days due to Unsettled geomagnetic activity and a return to 
Normal HF conditions by 20 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 May     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May     1    Near predicted monthly values
19 May     1    Near predicted monthly values
20 May     1    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for 
the next three days with a possibility of minor depressions at 
higher latitudes such as Tasmania today and tomorrow.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    11200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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