[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 16 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:YELLOW ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 May.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO
C2 imagery up till 15/1024UT. The solar wind speed ranged between
380 to 350 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently 355
km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 2-5 nT and its Bz component was
between +/-4 nT. Expect solar wind speed to increase to around
500 km/s around midday today, 16 May, due to a recurrent coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 1 00100101
Cocos Island 1 10100101
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 1 00100111
Alice Springs 1 00100101
Gingin 1 00100111
Canberra 0 00000101
Launceston 2 01101201
Hobart 1 00001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23211121
Mawson 13 21121254
Davis 11 12221244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 15 Quiet to Active
17 May 12 Unsettled
18 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed on the UT day,
15 May. Quiet conditions are expected for the first half of the
UT day, 16 May. Conditions are expected to increase to Unsettle
to Active with a possibility of Minor Storm levels at higher
latitudes in the second part of the UT day due to a recurrent
coronal hole effects. The following two days are expected to
be Unsettled with a possibility of isolated cases of Active levels
at higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 May 1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values today,
16 May, with a possibility of minor depressions in the southern
Australian region on 17-18 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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