[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 18 issued 2344 UT on 14 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 15 09:44:10 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 14 May.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO
C2 imagery up till 14/1733UT. The solar wind speed decreased
from 450 to 375 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently
380 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 5-3 nT and its Bz component
was between +3/-4 nT. Expect similar solar wind conditions for
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01112001
Cocos Island 1 01100001
Darwin 2 11111001
Learmonth 3 01222002
Alice Springs 2 11112001
Culgoora 2 01112101
Gingin 2 01111002
Canberra 2 01112001
Launceston 2 11112001
Hobart 2 01112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01102000
Casey 7 23222112
Mawson 18 32231136
Davis 18 23332126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1233 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 5 Quiet
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed on the UT day,
14 May. Quiet conditions are expected for today, 15 May. The
following two days are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with
a possibility of isolated cases of Active levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. The three days outlook (15-17) is for MUFs
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels. Observed isolated
pockets of sporadic E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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