[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 10 09:30:23 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the 
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of a C-class flare. Two small filaments disappeared from 
the visible solar disk starting 0700UT. There were no CMEs signature 
in the available imagery for 09 May. On UT day 09 May, the solar 
wind speed varied in the range 680-580 Km/s gradually decreasing 
due to the waning influence of the high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied between 3-6 
nT while the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT. Enhanced 
winds are expected to continue declining over the next three 
days as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 09 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22323232
      Cocos Island         7   22212231
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Learmonth           11   23323232
      Alice Springs        9   22223232
      Culgoora            10   22323232
      Gingin              11   22323242
      Canberra            10   22323232
      Launceston          16   33433333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
      Macquarie Island    21   33445332
      Casey               24   34333363
      Mawson              61   45633477

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   3333 1432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May    15    Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active 
                periods.
11 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods 
observed over the last 24 hours across the Australian region. 
Similar conditions are expected today, 10 May due to the continued 
influence of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent 
coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease 
to mostly Quiet levels by 12 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be observed over the 
next 24 hours due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Periods of slightly enhanced MUFs observed 
in the Equatorial region. Similar HF conditions expected over 
the next 3 days. Minor to moderate depressions may be observed 
today, 10 May due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 631 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   390000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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