[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 11 09:30:21 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the 
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of a C-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in available imagery for 10 May. The solar wind speed continued 
a gradual decline and is currently around 525 km/s due to the 
waning influence of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied between 3-5 nT while the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +3nT and -4nT. Solar winds are expected 
to continue to decline on 11-12 May, returning to nominal values 
on 13 May, as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332311
      Cocos Island         4   22212200
      Darwin               5   22221211
      Learmonth            9   22332321
      Alice Springs        7   22232211
      Culgoora             9   22332311
      Gingin               9   22233321
      Canberra             9   22332311
      Launceston          12   23333322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
      Macquarie Island    18   32354421
      Casey               16   44432322
      Mawson              56   55543657

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   4332 2244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 May     5    Quiet
13 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected to continue today, 11 May due to the 
continued influence of the high speed solar wind stream from 
the recurrent coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic activity is 
expected to decrease to Quiet levels on 12-13 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days. Minor degradations in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ 
region may be observed today, 11 May due to slightly increased 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 May     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Periods of enhanced MUFs observed in the 
Equatorial region. The three days outlook (11-13) is for MUFs 
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels. Minor degradations 
in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region may be observed today, 
11 May due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 622 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   380000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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