[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 9 09:30:23 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last 
24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity is 
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance 
of a C-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
imagery for 08 May. The solar wind speed (Vsw) remained enhanced, 
between 570-700 Km/s, over the UT day due to the influence of 
the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
The IMF Bt varied between 5-9 nT, mainly around 6 nT. The Bz 
component of IMF was between +/-7 nT. Enhanced winds are expected 
to continue today 09 May then start to decline from 10 May as 
the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23332422
      Cocos Island         8   13222321
      Darwin              11   23322421
      Learmonth           12   23322432
      Alice Springs       11   23322421
      Culgoora            10   13332322
      Gingin              12   23232432
      Canberra            10   23332321
      Launceston          13   23332432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island    19   14353431
      Casey               16   44322432
      Mawson              43   44543375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   4532 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    15    Quiet to Active
10 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24 
hours across the Australian region. Quiet to Active conditions 
are expected to continue for 09 May due to the continued influence 
of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal 
hole. Then the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to 
mostly Quiet levels by 11 May

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible over the 
next 24 hours due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
10 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly 
enhanced over all AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels on 09-11 
May, with minor to moderate depressions possible 09 May due to 
forecast geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 638 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   406000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list