[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 8 09:30:23 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last 
24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity is 
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available imagery for 07May. The solar wind 
speed (Vsw) ranged between 620kms-700km/s over the UT day due 
to the influence of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mainly around 6 nT, and the Bz component 
of IMF was between +/-6 nT. The enhanced winds are expected to 
continue on 08-09 May then start to wane on 10 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Active.

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33233312
      Cocos Island         6   22222212
      Darwin               9   23233212
      Learmonth           12   32233323
      Culgoora            14   34333312
      Gingin              13   3323341-
      Canberra            14   34333312
      Launceston          14   34333322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island    22   35354312
      Casey               18   43333433
      Mawson              59   65644457

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              77   (Active)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             26   6433 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May    14    Quiet to Active
09 May    12    Quiet to Active
10 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 6-8 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated 
Active periods observed over the last 24 hours across the Australian 
region. Quiet to Active conditions are expected to continue for 
08May-09May due to the continued influence of the high speed 
solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 8-9 May 
due to recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
09 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
10 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 6 May 
and is current for 6-8 May. MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced over all AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours 
due to recent geomagnetic activity. Possible Mild depressions 
on 08-09 May following positive ionospheric storm effect from 
recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 646 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   404000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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