[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 18 issued 2352 UT on 06 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon May 7 09:52:42 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last 
24 hours with no significant flare activity. There is one region 
on the visible disk, region 2708 (S11E23) currently at 30 millionths 
of a solar hemisphere. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed 
in the available imagery for 06May. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
ranged between 600kms-725km/s over the UT day due to the influence 
of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between 
+6nT and -7nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
for the next 2-3 days. Solar activity will be Very Low for the 
next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   43335233
      Cocos Island        11   32224223
      Darwin              18   43325233
      Learmonth           24   43336333
      Alice Springs       17   43335222
      Culgoora            17   43334233
      Gingin              22   43236323
      Canberra            17   43334233
      Launceston          21   44335233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
      Macquarie Island    29   44356233
      Casey               29   44434363
      Mawson              86   65644587

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           15   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              86   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           115   (Major storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             22   1102 4555     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May    22    Active
08 May    14    Unsettled to Active
09 May    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 6-8 May. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours. Active conditions expected for 07May 
with Unsettled to Active conditions for 08May-09May due to the 
continued influence of the high speed solar wind stream from 
the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
08 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
09 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
over the last 24 hours with only occasional depressed periods 
for high latitudes. Similar ionospheric support expected for 
07may with depressed MUFs expected for mid to low latitudes over 
the next 2-3 days and occasional disturbed ionospheric support 
for high latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 May    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 6 May 
and is current for 6-8 May. MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced over all AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours 
due to a positive ionospheric storm effect from recent geomagnetic 
activity. Possible enhancements followed by expected MUF depressions 
for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions for 07May followed by mildly depressed 
MUFs for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for 08May-09May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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