[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 18 issued 2353 UT on 05 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 6 09:53:51 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours with no significant flare activity. There is one region
on the visible disk, region 2708 (S11E37) currently at 80 millionths
of a solar hemisphere. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available imagery for 05May. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
was ~324km/s at 00UT and underwent a step increase at 0927UT
to 370km/s. Solar wind speed gradually increased to be ~660km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +2nT and -1nT before the weak shock
that was observed in the solar wind at 0927UT. Btotal then increased
to 17nT while Bz ranged between +13nT and -14nT with notable
extended southward excursions. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated under the influence of a high speed solar wind
stream from an equatorial located negative polarity coronal hole
for the next 2-3 days. Solar activity will be Very Low for the
next 3 days with slight chance of C-class events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 10 11023433
Cocos Island 9 11133323
Darwin 11 21133333
Learmonth 14 22133434
Alice Springs 8 01023333
Culgoora 10 11023433
Gingin 12 01022444
Canberra 10 01023433
Launceston 16 11023544
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 22 00025643
Casey 14 22132533
Mawson 46 33132548
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 25 Active
07 May 20 Active
08 May 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Elevated solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects
over the next 2-3 days will result in Active conditions on 06May-07May
with possible Minor Storm periods. Unsettled to Active conditions
for 08May. In the SWS magnetometer data for 05 May, a weak (10nT)
impulse was observed at 1026UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of occasional depressions for low latitudes and enhancements
at high latitudes. Variable ionospheric support with possible
enhancements to depressed MUFs expected for low to mid latitudes
and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitude regions 06May-08May
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 May -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 May -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Periods of minor
MUF depressions observed in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions.
Possible enhancements ahead of notable MUF depressions for Northern
AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity on
06May. Depressed MUFs for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions expected
07May-08May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list