[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 18 issued 2349 UT on 04 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 5 09:49:37 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours with no significant flare activity. There is currently
one region on the visible disk, region 2708 (S11E50) at 20 millionths
of a solar hemisphere. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available imagery for 04May, however a partial halo CME
was observed in LASCO C2 beginning at 17:12UT on 03May and analysis
shows that this was a backside event. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
was ~370km/s at 00UT and apart from a momentary increase to 440km/s
at 06:41UT it gradually declined to be 330km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-3nT with only a few brief 1 hour sustained southward
periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background/ambient
levels for the next 24 hours. On 06May the solar wind is expected
to be influenced by a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial
located negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity will be
Very Low for the next 3 days with slight chance of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 10201001
Learmonth 1 11200000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 01100000
Launceston 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12100111
Mawson 10 20212215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 25 Active
07 May 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours for
the Australian region. Quiet conditions are expected for 05May.
Initially Quiet followed by Active to Minor Storm conditions
expected for 06May as the solar wind is expected to be influenced
by a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located
negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions
expected for 07May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
07 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor MUF enhancements recorded in mid latitude areas
and occasional depressions for low latitudes. HF conditions and
maximum user frequencies are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support with
possible enhancements to depressed MUFs expected for low to mid
latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitude
regions 06May-07May due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 May -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 May -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Periods of minor
MUF depressions observed in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions
and enhancements for Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Similar HF conditions expected over the AUS/NZ region for the
next 24 hours. Possible enhancements ahead of notable MUF depressions
for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity
on 06May. MUF depressions expected to continue into 07May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 74100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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