[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 18 issued 2348 UT on 03 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:48:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours with no significant flare activity. The visible disk
is spotless and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in
the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) was ~360km/s
over the UT day apart from a period between 04UT-15UT where it
ranged between 325km/s-500km/s. The north south component of
the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -3nT and +4nT with no sustained
southward periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at
background/ambient levels for the next 2 days. On 06May the solar
wind is expected to be influenced by a high speed solar wind
stream from an equatorial located negative polarity coronal hole.
Solar activity will be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21001101
Cocos Island 1 21000001
Darwin 1 10101101
Learmonth 2 11101102
Alice Springs 2 21101001
Culgoora 2 21000101
Gingin 1 00001101
Canberra 1 21000001
Launceston 2 21001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 4 12211112
Mawson 9 11111125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1212 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for 04May-05May. Active to Minor Storm
conditions expected for 06May as the solar wind is expected to
be influenced by a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial
located negative polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor MUF enhancements recorded in mid latitude areas
and occasional depressions for low latitudes. HF conditions and
maximum user frequencies are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next 2 days. Variable ionospheric support with
possible enhancements to depressed MUFs expected for 06May due
to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
06 May -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours. MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Periods of minor MUF depressions observed
in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions and enhancements for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Similar HF conditions expected over the AUS/NZ
region for the next 2 days. Notable MUF depressions possible
for Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity
06May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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