[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 26 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 25 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Over
the last 24 hours solar wind speed ranged from 500km/s to 450km/s,
currently ~460km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT during this period.
Btotal ranged between 2-7nT, mostly near 5nT. Similar solar wind
conditions are expected to prevail over the UT day, 26 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 22343323
Cocos Island 7 11232222
Darwin 10 22232332
Townsville 13 22343323
Learmonth 13 22343323
Alice Springs 12 22343322
Gingin 13 22343323
Canberra 16 22353323
Launceston 22 33454423
Hobart 19 22453423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 27 23564422
Casey 14 43332323
Mawson 46 35443557
Davis 40 33542457
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2122 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 12 Unsettled
27 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions prevailed across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. The Antarctic region
was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active and Minor
Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions to prevail today,
26 March, with a possibility of isolated cases of Minor Storm
levels, particularly at higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at low
and polar latitudes. Expect this trend to continue today, 26
March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For 25 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted
values in the Australian region with minor depressions observed
at polar latitudes. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs today,
26 March, with isolated periods of Minor depressed MUFs possible
due to weak ionospheric storming. Isolated cases of Sporadic
E observed in the Australian and other Oceanic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list