[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 27 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 26 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24
hours the solar wind was enhanced due the influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged from 450km/s
to 550km/s, currently ~500km/s. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-6nT
during this period. Btotal was mostly near 4-5nT and ranged between
3-7 nT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to gradually
wane over the next three days, 27-29 March as coronal influence
wanes, although a positive polarity, north polar coronal hole
may enhance the solar wind again from 29 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22221221
Cocos Island 4 21111221
Darwin 5 22221121
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 6 22221221
Alice Springs 6 22221221
Gingin 6 22221222
Canberra 7 22231221
Launceston 8 23231222
Hobart 7 22231222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 22253221
Casey 15 44422223
Mawson 33 45332465
Davis 18 43332344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 4434 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 7 Quiet
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours with isolated Unsettled periods
at Higher latitudes. The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated periods of Active and Minor Storm levels. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for 27-29 March due to the expected
weakening influence of the coronal hole. Possible isolated cases
of Active levels on 29 March, particularly at higher latitudes
due to the influence of a another northern hemisphere located
positive polarity recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at high
latitudes. Expect this trend to continue today, 27 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For 26 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted
values in the Australian region with minor depressions observed
at higher latitudes. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E
throughout the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted
MUFs today,27 March, with isolated periods of Minor depressed
MUFs possible due to weak ionospheric storming with a return
to near predicted MUF's on 28-29 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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