[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 25 10:30:28 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 24 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1936UT. Over
the last 24 hours solar wind speed ranged from 500km/s to 395km/s,
currently ~470km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-7nT during this period.
Btotal ranged between 3-9nT. Today, 25 March, the solar wind
speed is expected to vary and generally increase due to the influence
of a negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12131222
Cocos Island 4 11120222
Darwin 6 12132212
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 8 22132223
Alice Springs 6 12131222
Gingin 9 21132323
Canberra 6 12231212
Launceston 9 12242222
Hobart 8 12141222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 11153322
Casey 14 34332233
Davis 17 23332254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 4313 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Mar 12 Unsettled
27 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 22 March and
is current for 24-25 Mar. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions
prevailed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours.
The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods
of Active and Minor Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions
to prevail today, 25 March, with a possibility of isolated cases
of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes due to
a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at low
and polar latitudes. Expect this trend to continue for next two
days, 25-26 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For 24 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted
values with minor depressions observed at low and polar latitudes.
Expect mostly near predicted MUFs today, 25-26 March, with isolated
periods of Minor to Moderate depressed MUFs due to expected weak
ionospheric storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic
activity. Isolated cases of Sporadic E observed at Brisbane,
Learmonth and Norfolk Island stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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