[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 24 10:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 March. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 23 March in 
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Over 
the last 24 hours solar wind speed increased from 410km/s to 
510km/s, currently ~475km/s. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-9nT during 
this period. Btotal ranged between 2-9nT, mostly 4-7nT. Today, 
24 March, the solar wind speed is expected to vary and generally 
increase due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22133222
      Cocos Island         5   22022122
      Darwin               8   22133122
      Townsville          10   32133232
      Learmonth           10   32123233
      Alice Springs        8   22133222
      Gingin              10   32123233
      Canberra             7   22132222
      Launceston           9   22133232
      Hobart               8   22133222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   12154122
      Casey               14   34323233
      Davis               14   33332234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1200 1133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    20    Active
25 Mar    20    Active
26 Mar    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 22 March and 
is current for 24-25 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
prevailed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. 
The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods 
of Active and Minor Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions 
to prevail for the next two days, 24-25 March, with a possibility 
of isolated cases of Minor to Major storm levels, particularly 
at higher latitudes due to a high speed solar wind stream associated 
with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24 
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed. Expect 
this trend to continue for today, 24 March. Moderately depressed 
MUFs may occur on 25-26 March due to expected ionospheric storming 
associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity resulting 
in Fair to Poor HF conditions particularly at higher latitudes

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: For 23 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted 
values. Expect near predicted MUFs today, 24 March. There may 
be depressed MUFs on 25-26 March due to expected ionospheric 
storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    28300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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