[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 23 10:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 22 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Over
the last 24 hours solar wind speed ranged from 325km/s to 415km/s,
currently 425km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +8/-9nT during this period.
Btotal ranged between 1-10nT, mostly 3-4nT, however increased
to 10nT late in the UT day, currently 6nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near nominal levels to slightly enhanced
for the UT day, 23 March. On day 24-25 March, expect the solar
wind to increase to moderate to strong levels due to a negative
polarity coronal hole connected to the southern pole of the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11001123
Cocos Island 2 11000122
Darwin 3 11001222
Townsville 4 11001223
Learmonth 4 11001123
Alice Springs 3 00000123
Culgoora 1 0000111-
Gingin 4 10000133
Canberra 3 10001123
Launceston 5 11002133
Hobart 3 11001122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 00002022
Casey 10 24211133
Davis 10 23311142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 0021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 12 Unsettled
24 Mar 25 Active
25 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions prevailed
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. The Antarctic
region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active
levels. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions to prevail for the
UT day, 23 March, with a possibility of isolated cases of Active
to Minor storm levels at higher latitudes. On 24-25 March expect
the geomagnetic activity to increase to mostly Active levels
with isolated periods of Minor to Major Storm levels due to a
high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole becoming
geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs observed at low latitudes
and southern polar region. Expect this trend to continue for
the next two days. Moderately depressed MUFs may occur on late
24 March and on 25 March due to expected ionospheric storming
associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity resulting
in Fair to Poor HF conditions particularly at higher latitudes
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
25 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: For March 22 HF conditions were mostly near predicted
values with moderate depressions observed in the Northern Australian
region during local day, most likely due to the low EUV levels.
Expect near predicted MUFs over the next two days. There may
be depressed MUFs on late on 24 March and on 25 March due to
expected ionospheric storming associated with an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 17600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list