[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 18 issued 2352 UT on 14 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Mar 15 10:52:32 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There are no active sunspots on the visible solar disc and no 
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed (Vsw) gradually increased 
from 325km/s at 11UT to be 425km/s at the time of this report. 
Total magnetic field strength (Bt) began to increase soon after 
Vsw did, from 3nT to 10nT with the north-south component (Bz) 
undergoing notable southward excursions reaching a maximum of 
-9nT between 13UT-20UT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase 
and remain elevated over the next 2 days due to the influence 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a northern hemisphere 
located negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11201433
      Cocos Island         7   11202323
      Darwin               9   11212423
      Townsville           9   11212423
      Learmonth           12   11202533
      Alice Springs        8   01201433
      Culgoora             6   11201323
      Gingin               9   11211433
      Canberra             7   01201333
      Launceston          11   11211434
      Hobart               8   01201433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   01111632
      Casey               12   33321333
      Mawson              26   21112646
      Davis               13   13223334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0001 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    19    Active
16 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 13 March and 
is current for 14-16 Mar. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions 
were observed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. 
Active conditions expected for 15Mar and Unsettled to Active 
conditions for 16Mar due to the influence of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions for 17Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with notable 
enhancements for low latitudes to occasional periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitude regions. HF conditions 
expected to range from near predicted monthly values to slightly 
depressed conditions for over the next 3 days due to geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Mar     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
16 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 14Mar ranging from 
minor depressions to occasional enhancements for Northern AUS/NZ 
and Equatorial regions. Slightly depressed MUFs for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Periods of Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions 
for Southern AUS/NZ, Northern AUS regions and disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions 15-17Mar due to increased geomagnetic 
activity during this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    25200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.