[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 18 issued 2351 UT on 13 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 14 10:51:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There are no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO coronagraph
imagery. Solar wind speed gradually declined from ~375km/s at
00UT to be ~340km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the solar wind Bz, ranged between +/-3nT over the
UT day with a notable sustained southward period between 05-11UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to be increase over the next 24
hours and remain elevated for the next 2 days due to the influence
of a northern hemisphere located negative polarity recurrent
coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 01112000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11111000
Townsville 3 11112011
Learmonth 2 01212000
Alice Springs 1 01102000
Culgoora 2 01112001
Gingin 2 01112010
Canberra 1 01111000
Launceston 4 11222101
Hobart 2 01212000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11122000
Casey 6 13321111
Mawson 9 01211144
Davis 8 03321132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 20 Active
15 Mar 18 Active
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the
Australian region over the last 24 hours. Initially Quiet conditions
expected for 14Mar with possible Active to Minor Storm periods
due to the expected onset of a high speed solar wind stream from
a negative polarity coronal hole. Active conditions expected
for 15Mar and mostly Unsettled conditions for 16Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some depressed
periods for high and mid latitude regions. MUFs expected to range
from near predicted monthly values to depressed conditions over
the next 3 days due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region for 13Mar with some minor depressions for
Southern AUS/NZ regions. MUFs are initially expected to be near
predicted monthly values for 14Mar. Possible periods of Minor
to Moderate MUFs depressions for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern
AUS regions 14-16 Mar due to the expected rise in geomagnetic
activity during this forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list