[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 13 10:30:31 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day 12 Mar.
Currently there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. No
Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. Very low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
13-15 Mar. The solar wind speed fluctuated around 400 km/s during
the last 24 hours. The Bz varied between -2 nT and +4 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be mostly near its background levels
today, 13 Mar. The effect of a negative polarity coronal hole
is expected to start to strengthen the solar wind stream from
14 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10001100
Cocos Island 1 10001100
Darwin 1 10001101
Townsville 2 11002111
Learmonth 1 10001100
Alice Springs 1 10001100
Culgoora 1 10001100
Gingin 1 10001100
Canberra 1 10001100
Launceston 3 11002202
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 7 33321101
Mawson 9 31022143
Davis 6 22122122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2220 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
15 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the
Australian region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions
today, 13 Mar. Conditions are expected to increase to Unsettled
to Active levels on 14-15 Mar due to the influence of high speed
solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region during the UT day 12 Mar. There were Minor
depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian Region during
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be mainly near predicted
monthly values on 13-15 Mar. Possible periods of Minor to Moderate
MUFs depressions during 14-15 Mar due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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