[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 18 issued 2348 UT on 15 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 16 10:48:39 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed in the available
LASCO coronagraph imagery and newly numbered region 2701 (S12W07)
is small at only 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) gradually increased from 440km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s
at the time of this report due to the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from the northern hemisphere located negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +7nT and
-5nT with only brief sustained southward Bz periods. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over the next 2 days. Very
Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 32131332
Cocos Island 7 31121232
Darwin 8 32131222
Townsville 9 32231322
Learmonth 12 32131343
Alice Springs 10 32131332
Culgoora 7 32121222
Gingin 10 32121333
Canberra 9 32131322
Launceston 13 32241333
Hobart 9 22231332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 17 21152532
Casey 17 44431233
Mawson 43 64332375
Davis 26 53332363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0011 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
18 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 13 March and
is current for 14-16 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
observed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 16Mar-18Mar with
the chance of Active periods due to elevated solar wind speeds
under the influence of a northern hemisphere located negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with notable
enhancements for low-mid latitudes to occasional periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitude regions. HF conditions
expected to range from near predicted monthly values to slightly
depressed conditions over the next 3 days due to geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 15Mar ranging from
brief enhancements to minor depressions for Southern AUS/NZ,
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Similar conditions are expected
for 16Mar-18Mar with increased chance of mild depressions due
to elevated geomagnetic activity during this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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