[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 7 10:30:30 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 6 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
A very faint CME was visible in the LASCO C3 images from 0530
UT/06 March. This seems like a far-side event and not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from nearly 360 km/s to 430 km/s today (UT day 06 March). The
IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 nT and 7 nT during the day, whereas
the Bz component varied between -3 nT and +5 nT during this time.
The solar wind may show some strengthening on 7 and 8 March due
to the expected effect of a northern hemisphere positive polarity
polar connected coronal hole and a newly formed negative polarity
coronal hole just south of the equator. Very Low levels of solar
flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 7-9 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21112301
Cocos Island 2 21101200
Darwin 4 11112301
Townsville 6 21113311
Learmonth 6 22212301
Alice Springs 4 11112301
Culgoora 3 11112201
Gingin 5 21112302
Canberra 3 11112201
Launceston 6 22212302
Hobart 4 21212201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 21121200
Casey 10 34322211
Mawson 9 43221212
Davis 9 23332212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled
08 Mar 14 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed across the Australian region today (UT day 06 March).
The Antarctic region experienced mainly quiet levels, with some
unsettled and active periods. Due to the expected effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from two coronal holes, mostly
unsettled conditions are forecast for 7 to 9 March with the
possibility of some active periods on 8 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
08 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 6 March with minor to moderate depressions on low
latitudes. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected from 7 to 9 March due to possible
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar -3 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Mar -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
09 Mar -7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Southern Australian region during the UT day 6 March. There were
minor depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian during the
local day and moderate depressions during the local night. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected in the Australian/NZ regions from 7 to 9 March
due to possible rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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