[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 6 10:30:28 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 5 March. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
6-8 March. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed varied between 350 km/s and 400 km/s in the last 24 
hours. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 7.9 nT at 05/0152 UT. 
The Bz varied between -3 nT and +6 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to return to nominal conditions on 6 March, then increase on 
7 March due to the influence of a northern hemisphere positive 
polarity polar connected coronal hole and a newly formed negative 
polarity coronal hole just south of the equator.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211221
      Cocos Island         3   11101220
      Darwin               5   22111221
      Townsville           5   22111221
      Learmonth            6   22212221
      Alice Springs        5   12211221
      Culgoora             3   11111121
      Gingin               3   20101220
      Canberra             4   11211121
      Launceston           4   11212121
      Hobart               4   11212121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   10112120
      Casey                9   33421111
      Mawson               6   22222211
      Davis                7   22332210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2221 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     4    Quiet
07 Mar    12    Unsettled to Active
08 Mar    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day 5 March. The Antarctic region experienced 
mainly Quiet levels, with some isolated Unsettled and Active 
periods. Quiet conditions are forecast for 6 March. Unsettled 
to Active conditions are forecast on 7-8 March due to the possible 
arrival of HSS from two coronal holes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
07 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
08 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the 
Southern Australian region during the UT day 5 March. There were 
Moderate depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian and Niue 
Island Regions during the local day and Minor depressions during 
the local night in the Niue Island Region. There were also isolated 
cases of Sporadic E blanketing over Australian ionosonde sites. 
MUFs are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values 
across the Australian region on 6-7 March, with the chance of 
periods of Minor depressions. MUFs may experience Minor to Moderate 
depressions on 8 March due to possible geomagnetic activity forecast 
to start on 7 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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