[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 18 issued 2338 UT on 04 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 5 10:38:03 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 4 March. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
5-7 March. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed started around 330 km/s then increased after 04/0124 
UT, reaching a maximum of 461 km/s at 04/0522 UT. This was followed 
by a gradual decline, with the solar wind speed is currently 
around 360 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 12.9 nT at 04/0120 
UT, then declined, fluctuating between 1 to 6 nT for most of 
the UT day. The Bz reached a minimum of -11.3 nT at 04/0121 UT, 
then fluctuated between +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to 
continue to return to nominal conditions during 5-6 March, then 
increase on 7 March due to the influence of a northern hemisphere 
positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32112201
      Cocos Island         4   32101200
      Darwin               5   32112201
      Townsville           6   32112211
      Learmonth            5   32102211
      Alice Springs        5   32102201
      Culgoora             5   32111201
      Gingin               3   21101211
      Canberra             4   32101201
      Launceston           7   33212211
      Hobart               5   32111201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   22111100
      Casey               15   45322212
      Mawson              19   33312255
      Davis               15   33322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1022 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     5    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar     4    Quiet
07 Mar    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the 
Australian region during the UT day 4 March. The Antarctic region 
experienced mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active 
to Minor Storm periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are forecast 
for 5 March, due to the weak influence of a recurrent northern 
hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole, returning to mainly 
Quiet conditions on 6 March. Unsettled to Active conditions are 
forecast on 7 March due to the influence of a northern hemisphere 
positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
06 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian region during the UT day 4 March. There were Minor 
depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian Region during 
the local day and in the Southern Australian Region during the 
local night. There were also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. MUFs are expected to be 
mainly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region 
on 5 March, with the chance of periods of Minor to Moderate depressions 
due to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions that occurred on 4 March. 
MUFs are expected to return to mainly near predicted monthly 
values on 6-7 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:   12.7 p/cc  Temp:    13300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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