[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 18 issued 2338 UT on 04 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 5 10:38:03 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 4 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
5-7 March. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed started around 330 km/s then increased after 04/0124
UT, reaching a maximum of 461 km/s at 04/0522 UT. This was followed
by a gradual decline, with the solar wind speed is currently
around 360 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 12.9 nT at 04/0120
UT, then declined, fluctuating between 1 to 6 nT for most of
the UT day. The Bz reached a minimum of -11.3 nT at 04/0121 UT,
then fluctuated between +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to
continue to return to nominal conditions during 5-6 March, then
increase on 7 March due to the influence of a northern hemisphere
positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 32112201
Cocos Island 4 32101200
Darwin 5 32112201
Townsville 6 32112211
Learmonth 5 32102211
Alice Springs 5 32102201
Culgoora 5 32111201
Gingin 3 21101211
Canberra 4 32101201
Launceston 7 33212211
Hobart 5 32111201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 22111100
Casey 15 45322212
Mawson 19 33312255
Davis 15 33322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1022 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 5 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 4 Quiet
07 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region during the UT day 4 March. The Antarctic region
experienced mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated Active
to Minor Storm periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are forecast
for 5 March, due to the weak influence of a recurrent northern
hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole, returning to mainly
Quiet conditions on 6 March. Unsettled to Active conditions are
forecast on 7 March due to the influence of a northern hemisphere
positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
06 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region during the UT day 4 March. There were Minor
depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian Region during
the local day and in the Southern Australian Region during the
local night. There were also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing
over some Australian ionosonde sites. MUFs are expected to be
mainly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region
on 5 March, with the chance of periods of Minor to Moderate depressions
due to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions that occurred on 4 March.
MUFs are expected to return to mainly near predicted monthly
values on 6-7 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 13300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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