[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 18 issued 2340 UT on 03 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Mar 4 10:40:20 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 3 March. Very 
Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next 
three UT days, 4-6 March. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO coronagraph imagery during the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed reached a minimum of 287 km/s around 
03/0530 UT then began to increase, reaching a peak of 344 km/s 
at 03/2100 UT. The solar wind speed is currently around 330 km/s. 
The IMF Bt started the UT day varying between 3 to 4 nT then 
began increasing after 03/0500 UT, reaching a maximum of 12.2 
nT at 03/2036 UT, and currently around 8 nT. The Bz reached a 
minimum of -7 nT at 03/0904 UT and is currently varying between 
-6 to 4 nT. Solar winds may become moderately enhanced on 4 March 
due to the weak influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole in the northern hemisphere, then begin to return to nominal 
values on 5-6 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   01122222
      Cocos Island         3   10121121
      Darwin               5   10122222
      Townsville           6   11132222
      Learmonth            5   00132222
      Alice Springs        5   10122222
      Culgoora             4   01122212
      Gingin               5   01122222
      Canberra             4   00122212
      Launceston           7   01132322
      Hobart               3   01121211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   00122211
      Casey               11   33432112
      Mawson              25   32122266
      Davis                8   13232122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2110 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of Active 
                periods
05 Mar     3    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day 3 March. The Antarctic region experienced 
mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels, with an isolated Storm period. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are forecast for 4-6 March, with 
the chance of Active periods on 4 March, due to the weak influence 
of a recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal 
hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Mar    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
06 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values, with 
Minor depressions during the local night, across the Australian 
region during the UT day 3 March. There were also isolated cases 
of Sporadic E blanketing over some Australian ionosonde sites. 
MUFs are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values 
across the Australian region on 4 March, with the chance of periods 
of Minor depressions in some regions. Minor to Moderate depressions 
in MUFs may occur on 5 March, depending on the occurrence of 
possible geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    23200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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