[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 18 issued 2343 UT on 02 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Mar 3 10:43:03 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 2 March. Active region 
2700 produced several flares. The largest flare, C1.9, peaked 
at 02/1107 UT. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 3-5 March, with a chance of C-class 
flares. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed decreased from around 360 km/s to currently around 
320 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 3-5 nT and the Bz varied 
between approximately -4 to +3 nT. Solar winds may become moderately 
enhanced on 3-5 March due to the possible influence of a recurrent 
positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   20000001
      Townsville           2   20101111
      Learmonth            2   20101002
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Culgoora             1   10001001
      Gingin               2   10001112
      Canberra             0   10001000
      Launceston           2   11101111
      Hobart               2   11101110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100000
      Casey               11   44321121
      Mawson               9   32211034
      Davis                8   32321031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0211 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of Active 
                periods
04 Mar    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of Active 
                periods
05 Mar     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day 2 March. The Antarctic region experienced 
mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels, with an isolated Active period. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are forecast for 3-5 March, with 
the chance of Active periods, due to the possible influence of 
a recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
05 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian region, with Moderate depressions during the local 
day in the Northern Australian region, during the UT day 2 March. 
There were also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing over 
some Australian ionosonde sites. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian region on 3 March, 
with possible Minor to Moderate depressions in the Northern Australian 
and Niue Island Regions during the local day. Minor to Moderate 
depressions in MUFs may occur on 4-5 March, depending on the 
arrival of possible geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.