[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 8 10:30:34 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
A very faint CME was visible in the Stereo A COR2 images as a
result of a filament lift off from the south-east quadrant of
the solar disc visible from the Earth. This filament eruption
is visible in SDO AIA304, GONG H-alpha from Big Bear, Cerro Tololo
and El Teide images. There is no visible signature of the CME
in the LASCO images. Minor effect of the CME on the Earth cannot
be completely ruled out. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from nearly 420 km/s to 375 km/s today (UT day 07 March).
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT during the day,
whereas the Bz component varied between -4 nT and +3 nT during
this time. The solar wind may show some strengthening on 8 and
9 March due to the expected effect of a northern hemisphere positive
polarity polar connected coronal hole and a newly formed negative
polarity coronal hole south of the equator. Minor effect of the
CME observed on 6 March, may contribute to minor enhancements
to the solar wind parameters on 10 March. Very Low levels of
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
8-10 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11100021
Cocos Island 2 11100021
Darwin 2 11100021
Townsville 2 11000022
Learmonth 3 11100031
Alice Springs 1 01000021
Culgoora 2 11100021
Gingin 1 10000020
Canberra 2 11000021
Launceston 2 12100021
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01100011
Casey 8 23321031
Mawson 14 12101055
Davis 6 11212033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across
the Australian region today (UT day 07 March). The Antarctic
region experienced mainly quiet levels, with some unsettled periods.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be expected from 8 to
10 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 7 March. There were minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs in some low-latitude regions during the local day. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected from 8 to 10 March due to possible slight rise
in geomagnetic activity during this period and continued very
low levels of solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
09 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Southern Australian region during the UT day 7 March. There were
minor to moderate depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian
regions during the local day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected in the Australian/NZ
regions from 8 to 10 March due to possible slight rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period and continued very low levels of
solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 95300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list