[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 26 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25 Jun and it is expected 
to be Very Low for the next three days with only a slight chance 
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed remained around 
450 Km/s over the UT day 25 Jun. The magnitude of the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) has gradually increased, ranging between 
+/-3nT between 00-08UT to being southward at -9nT at the time 
of this report. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to 
ambient levels today, 26 Jun then increase from 27 Jun due to 
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   11024224
      Darwin               7   11123123
      Townsville          10   11124224
      Learmonth           11   11124134
      Alice Springs        8   11023224
      Gingin              10   10014234
      Canberra             8   11023224
      Launceston          11   20024234    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   10015334
      Casey               18   23123236
      Mawson              36   33232367

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun    25    Active
28 Jun    25    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 25 Jun. Unsettled to 
Active levels were reached in the second half of the UT day in 
association with Bz southward orientation. Expect magnetic conditions 
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the next UT 
day, 26 Jun. From 27 Jun due to arrival of the corotating interaction 
region and high-speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent 
coronal hole, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to 
Active levels and can reach Minor storm levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 25 
Jun. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jun    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 
and possible mild enhancement in response to expected magnetic 
disturbance associated with the passage of the recurrent coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   295000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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