[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 June 18 issued 2334 UT on 26 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Jun 27 09:34:07 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot on the visible disk. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
The solar wind speed was ~420km/s and began to increase from 
0940UT onwards to be 650 Km/s at the time of this report. These 
strong solar wind speeds are in response to the arrival of CIR 
ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. Bz ranged 
between +/-10nT until 0940UT after which it decreased in magnitude 
and is currently fluctuating between +/-4nT while Bt was varying 
in the range 3-13 nT during this period. The solar wind stream 
is expected to remain elevated over the next three days due to 
coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
Very Low levels for the next three days

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   32335332
      Darwin              13   22334331
      Townsville          17   32335332
      Learmonth           16   22335332
      Alice Springs       16   22335332
      Gingin              16   32334342
      Canberra            15   32244332
      Launceston          18   32345332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    31   43366332
      Casey               16   33334333
      Mawson              33   54444355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2112 2235     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    25    Active
28 Jun    25    Active
29 Jun    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 25 June and 
is current for 27-28 Jun. Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to 
Minor levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 
26 Jun. This was caused by the arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated 
with a recurrent coronal hole and a long period of significant 
southward Bz component. Expect magnetic conditions to be at Quiet 
to Active levels and at times may reach Minor Storm level, over 
the next 24-48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jun    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
a slightly better ionospheric support today in response to the 
magnetic disturbance associated with the the recurrent coronal 
hole. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with 
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values and the chance 
of enhancements for Equatorial,Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ 
regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   141000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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