[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 June 18 issued 2351 UT on 24 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 25 09:51:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24Jun. There is currently
one numbered sunspot on the visible disk, Region 2715 (N04W34)
which produced a B8.6 flare at 0145UT. No earthward directed
CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery. The solar wind
speed gradually decreased over the UT day from 507km/s at 00UT
to be ~460km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between -5nT and +6nT between 00UT-07UT
after which Bz magnitude decreased and has ranged between 2nT
and -3nT up until the time of this report. Solar wind speed is
expected to decline to ambient/background levels for 25Jun-26Jun.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole on the
27Jun. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next
three days with only a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22223111
Darwin 6 122230--
Townsville 6 121231--
Learmonth 7 22------
Alice Springs 6 212230--
Gingin 7 22123---
Canberra 7 212231--
Launceston 8 22224111
Hobart 7 21224110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 15 323440--
Casey 10 332231--
Mawson 15 334421--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 2324 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 25Jun-26Jun.
Active conditions expected for 27Jun due to recurrent coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 24Jun
with some disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes and
mild enhancements for low-mid latitudes. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly
values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jun 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed
at all regions during local night. Variable ionospheric support
observed for Antarctic regions ranging from slight enhancements
to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values and possible mild enhancements for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 14.3 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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