[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 June 18 issued 2351 UT on 23 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 24 09:51:57 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23Jun. There is currently
two numbered sunspots on the visible disk, Region 2715 (N04W20)
and Region 2713 (N04W75) which produced minor B-class events.
No earthward directed CME's were observed in available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed gradually increased over the UT
day from 324km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s at the time of this report.
This increase was due to the onset of high speed solar wind stream
from a north pole connected positive polarity coronal hole. The
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between -5nT and
+8nT between 00UT-07UT. Bz magnitude increased and ranged between
-15nT and 12nT between 07UT-13UT after which it has ranged between
-9nT and 7nT up until the time of this report. Solar wind speed
is expected to be elevated over the next 24-36 hours. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next three days with only
a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 12244212
Darwin 10 1324320-
Townsville 14 2324430-
Learmonth 12 1224430-
Alice Springs 11 1224420-
Gingin 10 1223430-
Canberra 8 1213420-
Launceston 14 13145222
Hobart 12 12135222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 30 0215730-
Casey 9 2233320-
Mawson 20 4534321-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1120 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 13 Unsettled to Active
25 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours with a minor storm period at high latitudes in the AUS/NZ
region due to the onset of the high speed solar wind stream from
the north pole connected positive polarity coronal hole. Unsettled
conditions with possible Active periods expected for 24Jun and
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 25Jun-26Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 23Jun
with some disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes and
mild enhancements for low-mid latitudes. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly
values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed
at all regions during local night. Variable ionospheric support
observed for Antarctic regions ranging from slight enhancements
to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values and possible mild enhancements for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions for 24Jun-25Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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