[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 18 issued 2350 UT on 22 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Jun 23 09:50:28 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Jun. There is currently 
three numbered sunspots on the visible disk with region 2714 
(N08W80) set to rotate behind the west limb. Region 2715 (N04W07) 
was quiet and has decreased in overall size during the last 24 
hours and region 2713 (N04W62) was the source of minor B-class 
events. No earthward directed CME's were observed in available 
LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed continued to decline to ambient 
levels, beginning the UT day at ~380km/s and is currently ~330km/s 
at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
at low levels for the next 24 hours after which there is an expected 
increase on 24Jun due to coronal hole effects. The magnitude 
of the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) has gradually increased, 
ranging between +/-2nT at 00UT to being mostly southward at -4nT 
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low for the next three days with the slight chance of C-class 
flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01100110
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           1   01100111
      Learmonth            1   01100110
      Alice Springs        1   00100111
      Gingin               1   11100110
      Canberra             0   00100100
      Launceston           1   01100110
      Hobart               1   00100110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                3   12110111
      Mawson              12   22221235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1111 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun     5    Quiet
24 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region for 
22Jun. Quiet conditions are expected for 23Jun. Increased solar 
wind speed due to the influence of a north pole connected positive 
polarity coronal hole expected for 24Jun resulting in Unsettled 
conditions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 25Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 22Jun 
with some disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar 
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted 
monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed 
at Equatorial regions during local night. Variable ionospheric 
support observed for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced 
to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly 
values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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