[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 18 issued 2336 UT on 21 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jun 22 09:36:23 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  82/23

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 21Jun with a C2.1 flare at 
0115UT from region 2715 (N04E07). There is currently three numbered 
sunspots on the visible disk. No earthward directed CME's were 
observed in available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed gradually 
declined from 427km/s at 00UT to be ~380km/s at the time of this 
report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background/ambient 
levels for the next 2 days after which there is an expected increase 
on 24Jun due to coronal hole effects. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3nT and -2nT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low to Low levels for the next three days 
with chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Darwin               0   11000000
      Townsville           0   01100000
      Learmonth            0   10100000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           1   11010000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   10010000
      Casey                2   22111000
      Mawson               6   32221003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1233 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     5    Quiet
23 Jun     5    Quiet
24 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region for 
21Jun. Quiet conditions are expected for 22Jun-23Jun. Increased 
solar wind speed due to the influence of a north pole connected 
positive polarity coronal hole expected for 24Jun resulting in 
Unsettled conditions with the chance of Active periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 21Jun 
with notable enhancements observed at low to mid latitudes and 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF 
conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted 
monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 
June and is current for 21-22 Jun. MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours with periods of notable 
enhancements observed at Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions 
during local night. Variable ionospheric support observed for 
Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced to poor/disturbed conditions. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs 
expected to be near predicted monthly values and the chance of 
enhancements for Equatorial,Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:   12.1 p/cc  Temp:   317000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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