[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 2 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 1 June.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 2-4 June, solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
the UT day, 1 June, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 1/2200 UT. During
the last 24 h, the solar wind speed was gradually increasing
from 510 km/s to 740 km/s. The IMF Bt during this period was
varying in the range 3-11 nT, gradually decreasing on average.
There were several prolonged periods with negative Bz, the minimum
value of Bz was -9 nT. The outlook for 2 June is for the solar
wind speed to remain at strong levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 23344422
Cocos Island 11 23333311
Darwin 14 23343421
Townsville 16 23344422
Learmonth 21 23355422
Alice Springs 16 23344421
Culgoora 18 23444422
Gingin 21 32355422
Canberra 18 23444422
Launceston 24 23455432
Hobart 22 23455421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 62 24677632
Casey 20 43344423
Mawson 61 55654666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 2212 1444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 19 Active
03 Jun 17 Active
04 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to active
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 1 June.
The increased magnetic activity is due to arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. On 2 June due
to coronal hole effects, geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly at unsettled to active levels with possible minor
storm levels. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
gradually.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal to fair HF conditions for the next
UT day, 2 June. Depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high
latitudes in Northern hemisphere. Such degraded conditions is
a response to the observed and predicted increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 7 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 1 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values for AUS/NZ regions during local day. MUFs were enhanced
during local night, as a response to the increased geomagnetic
activity. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 2-4 June. Mildly increased MUFs are also
expected for 2 June as a response to the recent increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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