[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 18 issued 2350 UT on 02 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Jun 3 09:50:52 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 2 June, 
with only B-class flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot 
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 3-5 
June, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed during the UT day, 2 June, via LASCO C2 imagery 
up to 02/2012 UT. During the last 24 h, the solar wind speed 
was at very high levels, ranging from 600 km/s to 750 km/s. These 
strong solar wind speeds are in response to high speed solar 
wind streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole The IMF Bt during this period was varying in the range 3-7 
nT. There were several periods with negative Bz, the minimum 
value of Bz was -5 nT during the last 24 hours. The outlook for 
3 June is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly at strong 
levels and from thereafter start to decline as the coronal hole 
effects begin to wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Active

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2322----
      Cocos Island         8   2321----
      Darwin               9   2322----
      Townsville          11   2332----
      Learmonth           11   23------
      Alice Springs       11   3322----
      Culgoora             8   231-----
      Gingin               9   2322----
      Canberra             9   2322----
      Launceston          19   343-----
      Hobart               7   230-----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   2333----
      Casey               13   3332----
      Mawson              40   4652----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              83   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   4544 5433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Jun    15    Unsettled
05 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at unsettled to active 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 2 June. 
The increased magnetic activity is due to high-speed solar wind 
streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole. On 3 June due to coronal hole effects, geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly at unsettled to active levels with 
possible minor storm levels. Then geomagnetic activity is expected 
to decline gradually.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high latitudes 
in Northern hemisphere. Such degraded conditions is a response 
to the observed and predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 2 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions during local day. MUFs were enhanced 
during local night, as a response to the increased geomagnetic 
activity. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next three UT days, 3-5 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 636 km/sec  Density:    9.5 p/cc  Temp:   458000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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