[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 1 09:30:35 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 31 May.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 1-3 June, solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
the UT day, 31 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 31/2036 UT. The
solar wind speed was near its background levels, 350-370 km/s,
up to 1330 UT. The IMF Bt during this period was also steady,
varying in the range 1-4 nT without significant periods with
negative Bz. Upon arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high-speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole at 1330 UT the speed was increasing
and reached 510 km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bt reached
17 nT and its maximum negative Bz reached -12 nT. The outlook
for 1 June is for the solar wind speed to continue increasing
and then remain at strong levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 7 11112332
Cocos Island 7 12111332
Darwin 7 11112332
Townsville 7 21112332
Learmonth 10 12112442
Alice Springs 7 11112332
Culgoora 7 11112332
Gingin 10 11102352
Canberra 6 11012332
Launceston 8 12122332
Hobart 6 11022232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 4 10121221
Casey 9 12212342
Mawson 30 33223374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 27 Active
02 Jun 19 Active
03 Jun 17 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 30 May and
is current for 1 Jun only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day,
31 May. Unsettled levels were reached in the second half of the
UT day upon arrival of the corotating interaction region and
high-speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole. On 1 June due to coronal hole effects, geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly at unsettled to active levels
with possible minor storm levels. Then geomagnetic activity is
expected to decline gradually.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly fair HF conditions for the next UT day,
1 June. Such degraded conditions is a response to the predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 7 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for AUS/NZ
regions on UT day 31 May. Minor depressions were also observed
in Northern Australian region during local night. Expect mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 1-3
June. Mildly increased MUFs are also possible for 1 June as a
response to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 78100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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