[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 18 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jul 26 09:31:50 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 July, with 
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 25/1542 UT. 
During the UT day 25 July, the solar wind speed varied between 
550 km/s and 625 km/s, currently near 530 km/s. The total IMF 
Bt varied between 2 to 5 nT, currently around 3 nT. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between -5 to 3 nT. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 July. The solar 
wind is expected to gradually decline over the UT days 26-28 
July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Cocos Island         3   22111100
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Townsville           4   22210111
      Learmonth            5   32111111
      Alice Springs        4   22200---
      Culgoora             3   22210110
      Gingin               4   22210---
      Canberra             2   22100000
      Launceston           7   33221111
      Hobart               4   22211110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     5   13320000
      Casey                8   33221122
      Mawson              25   55423225
      Davis               23   45322425

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   3333 2324     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active levels
27 Jul     5    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region on UT day 25 July. Quiet to Unsettled 
levels of global magnetic activity, with a chance of Active levels, 
are expected on UT day, 26 July, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
on UT days, 27-28 July, as the influence of the coronal hole 
declines.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions 
are possible at high latitudes on 26 July due to the recent geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
27 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 25 July, with Minor MUF depressions 
in the Northern Australian Region during the local day. Incidents 
of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian sites. Periods 
of Minor MUF depressions are possible at high latitudes on 26 
July due to the recent geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 560 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   290000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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