[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 18 issued 2342 UT on 24 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 25 09:42:52 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 July, with
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 24/1442 UT.
During the UT day 24 July the solar wind became enhanced after
24/0300 UT due to the arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed started the UT
day 24 July around 400 km/s, reaching a maximum 648 km/s at 24/1554
UT, currently near 570 km/s. The total IMF Bt peaked at 15 nT
at 24/0602 UT then gradually declined, currently around 4 nT.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 11 nT, reaching a
minimum of -11 nT at 24/0636 UT. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 July. The solar
wind is expected to remain enhanced on 25 July, then gradually
decline on 26-27 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 24422323
Cocos Island 14 24422323
Darwin 14 24422323
Townsville 15 34422323
Learmonth 14 24422323
Alice Springs 15 34422323
Culgoora 12 23332323
Gingin 16 33322434
Canberra 13 23331324
Launceston 15 33332334
Hobart 13 23332324
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 12344423
Casey 46 34432348
Mawson 61 55543477
Davis 45 54542357
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 22 July and
is current for 24-25 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to
Active levels across the Australian region on UT day 24 July.
Unsettled to Active levels of global magnetic activity are expected
on UT day, 25 July, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT
days, 26-27 July, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible at high latitudes on 25-27 July due to the current
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 24 July, with Minor MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian Region during the local day and Moderate
MUF enhancements in the Northern and Southern Australian Region
during the local night. Incidents of sporadic-E were observed
at some Australian sites. Periods of Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
are possible at high latitudes on 25-27 July due to the current
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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