[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 18 issued 2332 UT on 26 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jul 27 09:32:44 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 July, with 
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 26/1618 UT. 
During the UT day 26 July, the solar wind speed gradually declined, 
starting around 560 km/s, currently around 440 km/s. The total 
IMF Bt varied between 2 to 4 nT, currently around 4 nT. The Bz 
component of IMF varied between -4 to 2 nT. Very low levels of 
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 
July. The solar wind is expected to continue to gradually decline 
over the UT days 27-29 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101000
      Cocos Island         1   01101000
      Darwin               1   01101000
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   11001110
      Alice Springs        1   21001000
      Culgoora             1   01101000
      Gingin               1   11000110
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           1   11101100
      Hobart               0   01001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22211111
      Mawson               9   23211224
      Davis                9   13221340

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3432 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     5    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul     5    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 26 July. Quiet to Unsettled levels 
of global magnetic activity are expected on UT days, 27-29 July, 
as the influence of the coronal hole declines.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 26 July, with Minor MUF depressions 
in the Niue Island Region. Incidents of sporadic-E were observed 
at some Australian sites. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values 
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days 
(27-29 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   316000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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