[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 20 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 19 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 19/2218 UT. During
the UT day 19 July the solar wind speed was near its nominal
values, gradually increasing on average since 0805 UT, currently
at 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 6 nT.
The Bz component of IMF varied between -4 nT and +5 nT. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 20-22 July. During the next 24 hours the solar wind
speed is expected to increase further due to effects related
to a recurrent coronal hole which was facing the Earth on 16
July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01010111
Cocos Island 1 01010010
Darwin 1 01110101
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 1 00110111
Culgoora 1 01010101
Gingin 1 00100110
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 2 11010211
Hobart 0 00000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010100
Casey 4 12211211
Mawson 7 31121232
Davis 9 22231133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region today (UT day 19 July). On UT day 20 July geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels
due to effects related to a recurrent coronal hole which was
facing the Earth on 16 July. Isolated minor storm periods are
also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 19 July) with periods of mild MUF enhancements in the Southern
hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days (20-22 July). Periods of moderately degraded
conditions are possible on 20 July due to expected increase of
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 19 July) with periods of mild MUF
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during local night
and after local dawn. Incidents of sporadic-E were observed across
Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (20-22 July).
Periods of moderately degraded conditions are possible on 20
July due to expected increase of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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