[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 19 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 18 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 18/1436 UT. During
the UT day 18 July the solar wind speed was quite steady, mostly
decreasing from 450 km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 nT and 6 nT today, gradually decreasing on average.
The Bz component of IMF varied between -2 nT and +2 nT. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 19-21 July. During the next 24 hours the solar wind
speed is expected to vary near its nominal levels. In the second
half of the next UT day (19 July), the solar wind speed is expected
to start increasing due to effects related to a recurrent coronal
hole which was facing the Earth on 16 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 11201010
Alice Springs 1 010-----
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12210010
Mawson 7 22122033
Davis 6 22232021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2441 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
20 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region today (UT day 18 July). Mostly quiet levels
of global geomagnetic activity are expected for the first half
of the next UT day, 19 July. Later on UT day 19 July geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels
due to effects related to a recurrent coronal hole which was
facing the Earth on 16 July. Isolated minor storm periods are
also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 18 July) with periods of mild MUF enhancements in the Southern
hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days (19-21 July). Periods of moderately degraded
conditions are possible on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase
of geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 18 July) with periods of mild MUF
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during local night.
Incidents of sporadic-E were observed at some sites. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three UT days (19-21 July). Periods of moderately degraded conditions
are possible on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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