[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 18 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 17 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 17/1948 UT. During
the UT day 17 July the solar wind speed was gradually increasing
from 340 km/s to 450 km/s, currently near 420 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 11 nT today, gradually decreasing
on average. The Bz component of IMF varied between -9 nT and
+9 nT, with one prolonged period (0220-0600 UT) with mostly negative
Bz. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next
three UT days, 18-20 July. During the next 24 hours the solar
wind speed is expected to decrease as the coronal hole effects
vane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12201100
Cocos Island 2 12210000
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 5 23211111
Learmonth 4 12301101
Alice Springs 9 232-----
Culgoora 2 12201000
Gingin 3 22201101
Canberra 2 12201100
Launceston 4 13202100
Hobart 2 12201100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 02301100
Casey 4 13211101
Mawson 17 24521105
Davis 7 12421012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1222 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 6 Quiet
19 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels with
isolated unsettled periods across the Australian region today
(UT day 17 July). Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
are expected for the next UT day, 18 July. Later on UT day 19
July geomagnetic activity is expected to increase and can reach
active levels due to effects related to a recurrent coronal hole
which was facing the Earth on 16 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 17 July) with periods of moderate MUF enhancements in the
Southern hemisphere and mild depressions in the Northern hemisphere.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT
days (18-20 July). Periods of moderately degraded conditions
are possible on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 17 July) with periods of moderate
MUF enhancements during local night. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days
(18-20 July). Periods of moderately degraded conditions are possible
on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 14.3 p/cc Temp: 19100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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