[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 17 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 16 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. A filament centred at N19E51
erupted at 16/0712 UT. However, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed
today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 16/1524 UT. During the
UT day 16 July the solar wind speed was near its background values,
320-360 km/s, currently near 345 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 3 nT and 15 nT today, increasing on average. The Bz component
of IMF varied between -8 nT and +9 nT, staying mostly southwards
during this time. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 17-19 July. During the next 24 hours
the solar wind speed may increase to moderate values due to a
small coronal hole which was facing the Earth on 12 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 12331223
Cocos Island 5 12211212
Darwin 6 12221222
Townsville 9 22331223
Learmonth 9 12231224
Alice Springs 6 12220223
Culgoora 8 12330213
Gingin 4 0222121-
Canberra 8 12331213
Launceston 11 02341323
Hobart 8 01341212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 15 01462111
Casey 5 12211113
Mawson 35 23332176
Davis 24 13431156
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul 6 Quiet
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region today (UT day 16 July). Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity are expected for
the next three UT days (17-19 July). Later on UT day 19 July
geomagnetic activity can increase due to effects related to a
recurrent coronal hole which was facing the Earth on 16 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 16 July) with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements and
depressions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days (17-19 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 16 July) with periods of minor to
mild MUF depressions in Northern Australian region during local
day and moderate MUF enhancements in Southern Australian region
during local night. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (17-19 July)
with a chance for slight degradations in HF conditions on UT
day 17 July due to possible increase in geomagnetic activity
on that day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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