[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 15 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 15/1936 UT and LASCO
C3 imagery up to 15/1942 UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 450 km/s to 310 km/s during the UT day today. At
the time of writing of this report (~2300 UT), solar wind speed
is around 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
3 nT and 5 nT today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between
-3 nT and +1 nT staying mostly southwards during this time. The
particle density of the solar wind at L1 stayed mostly between
2 and 9 ppcc. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days (UT days 16 to 18 July). Effect of a
small and weak coronal hole may keep the solar wind stream slightly
strengthened on UT day 16 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11010010
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 0 10000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11010000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 11110010
Mawson 14 44121134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
17 Jul 4 Quiet
18 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region
today (UT day 15 July). Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 16 to 18 July)
with some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on UT
day 16 July due to the effect of a weak and small negative polarity
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 15 July) with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some mid- and high-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 16 to 18 July)
with the possibility of slight MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions on UT day 16 July due to the possibility of
slight rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods
of minor MUF depressions possible
17 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 15 July) with periods of minor to
mild MUF enhancements in Southern Australian and Antarctic regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions
for the next three days (UT days 16 to 18 July) with the possibility
of slight MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions on
UT day 16 July due to the possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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