[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 15 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 14 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 14/2024 UT and LASCO
C3 imagery up to 14/2030 UT. However, one CME was observed in
the LASCO C2 and C3 imagery leaving the south-west limb in the
early hours today. This seems like a far side event and is not
expected to have any geo-effective component. The solar wind
speed varied mostly between 430 km/s and 510 km/s during the
UT day today. At the time of writing of this report (~2300 UT),
solar wind speed is 440 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 2 nT and 5 nT today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between -3 nT and +2 nT during this time. The particle density
of the solar wind at L1 stayed mostly between 3 and 6 ppcc. Very
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three
days (UT days 15 to 17 July). Effect of a small and weak coronal
hole may keep the solar wind stream slightly strengthened for
the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111010
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 21101010
Townsville 2 21111010
Learmonth 4 22211020
Alice Springs 3 2110----
Gingin 2 1011----
Canberra 1 11011010
Launceston 3 11122010
Hobart 3 11122010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 10122000
Casey 5 23211120
Mawson 9 33221132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
16 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
17 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region
today (UT day 14 July). Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
with small possibility of isolated unsettled conditions may be
expected for the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 July). Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay at quiet levels on UT day 17 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 14 July) with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some mid- and high-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 July)
with the possibility of slight MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions on UT days 15 and 16 July due to the possibility
of slight rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods
of minor MUF depressions possible
16 Jul 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods
of minor MUF depressions possible
17 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 14 July) with periods of minor to
mild MUF enhancements in Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for
the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 July) with the possibility
of slight MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions on
UT days 15 and 16 July due to the possibility of slight rise
in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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